Quantifying the target market for advertisers

Marketers who want to protect their brand’s share or grow it need know reach and nudge with advertising. This paper uses continuous household panel data for 55 leading, advertised brands in 12 cpg categories quantify target market over different time frames conditions (market type, brand size dynamism). Results demonstrate that the customer base (brand penetration) must swell dramatically maintain, let alone grow, share. For stable brands, penetration typically doubles from its level one quarter a year, then again year five years as continue attract lighter buyers underpin long run sales. Over years, third of are so light they buy just once, but such vital sales critical growth. As well quantifying five-year audience across these conditions, we test predictive accuracy NBD-Dirichlet benchmark. The implications advertising media strategy detailed. long-term lessons targeting become clear – unless “target market”, have adopted counter growth strategy.